Jan permanent products orders seen up 1.5 percent

Wed Feb 24, 2010 3:00pm EST Stocks & &

WHAT: U.S. January durable goods report

WHEN: February 25 at 8:30 a.m.

REUTERS FORECAST:

The median forecast for new orders for durable goods is for a 1.5 percent rise in January after a 1.0 percent gain in December. Forecasts range from a drop of 0.5 percent to a gain of 5.0 percent.

Stripping out transportation orders - which are heavily skewed by aircraft bookings - the median forecast for new orders for durables is for a 1.0 percent increase in January after a 1.4 percent gain the prior month. Forecasts range from a 1.8 percent drop to a 2.0 percent increase.

The median forecast for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft -- a key component of the monthly report seen as a gauge of business spending -- is for a 0.8 percent rise in January after a 2.2 percent gain in December. Forecasts range from a 1.5 percent drop to a 3.2 percent increase.

FACTORS TO WATCH:

An increase in civilian aircraft orders likely propelled new orders for U.S.-made durable goods in January. The expected rise in aircraft orders comes as U.S. plane maker Boeing Co (BA.N) reported that it won orders for 10 aircraft during January, building on the 59 orders placed in December.

Excluding transportation, orders will likely rise with gains in the two metals categories as well as tech-related equipment.

A third straight monthly rise in nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft should confirm investment growth is improving.

Inventories outside of the vehicle sector should also show improvement after the sharp cutback in stock during the fourth quarter of 2009. For the manufacturing sector, some analysts say cuts will continue for a while because the inventory-to-shipments ratio is still high in this sector.

MARKET IMPACT:

Stronger-than-expected durable goods orders would likely be supportive for stocks and the U.S. dollar, while creating pressure on bond prices, as it would be seen as a sign of improving economic strength.

The impact of the orders figures could be offset, though, by data on U.S. weekly jobless claims, released at the same time, as market participants look for changes in the job market, one of the weakest sectors of the U.S. economy.

(Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit)

(Reporting by Nancy Waitz and Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Padraic Cassidy)